Cyclone Fani: How India saved more than a million lives and averted a disaster of epic proportions

When a natural calamity of epic proportions strikes, humans are mostly rendered helpless. However, proper use of technology may help us prepare for the worst and minimize loss of precious lives. This was evident in the way India managed early warning and disaster relief operations and rescued more than a million people from impending disaster. Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm Fani was the strongest tropical cyclone to strike the Indian state of Odisha since Phailin in 2013. Fani originated from a tropical depression that formed west of Sumatra in the Indian Ocean on 26th April, 2019. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) monitored a tropical disturbance that formed in the North Indian Ocean, and designated it with the identifier 01B. Fani slowly drifted westward, finding itself in an area conducive for strengthening. The system intensified and two days after being named, it became Cyclone Fani.

Simulated depiction of cyclonic winds, Fani

Fani moved northward and began to rapidly intensify. It became an extremely severe cyclonic storm on 30 April 2019, the first severe cyclonic storm of the season. Fani reached its peak intensity on 2nd May, as a high-end extremely severe cyclonic storm, and the equivalent of a high-end Category 4 major hurricane. Fani continued to maintain its strength up until landfall in the Indian state of Odisha on 3rd May when the coastal state witnessed torrential rain and wind-speeds reaching 200 kmph. Trees were uprooted, huts and temporary shelters blown away, vehicles over-turned, cranes toppled and buildings damaged. As people sought safety inside their homes, doors and windows were no match for Fani's might. Power-supply was cut off and transportation services were grounded. At least 14 people were reported killed and several others injured. Considering the power of the super typhoon, the number of casualties was miraculously low.

Trees uprooted by cyclone Fani, Odisha

So, how did India manage to keep casualties at a minimum? What was different from the India of 20 years ago when it experienced a similar super-cyclone which ripped through the state of Odisha and left 10,000 people dead in its wake? The answer lay in early satellite-based meteorological forecast and warning, preemptive evacuation and speedy supply of relief materials to the affected areas. Prior to its landfall, authorities in India had moved at least a million people from Fani's projected path onto higher ground and into cyclone shelters, which is thought to have reduced the resultant death toll. The Central Government released preemptive aid to the tune of 1000 crore rupees for the coastal states and naval ships and reconnaissance aircraft were used to monitor and patrol the coastline.

Fani topples a crane

Approximately 1.2 million people were shifted across 13 districts to the safety of 5000 cyclone shelters within a span of 24 to 36 hours. This was a tremendous achievement and required meticulous planning and herculean effort by both the state and central governments. The National Disaster Response Force (NDRF) and several other agencies were pressed into action and an operation ensued which involved 45,000 volunteers and 2,000 emergency workers.

NDRF Team for Cyclone Fani, Odisha

Some 3 million targeted text messages were sent asking people to get to their nearest shelters and warning messages were repeatedly circulated across television and radio. The reach was more personal, and magnified several times over. Public address systems on government vehicles and auto-rickshaws moved around, telling people that they need to move. There was elaborate planning and everybody worked as a team.

Relief aid for Cyclone Fani, IAF C130J Super Hercules

Technical teams were kept on standby to repair fallen poles, broken wires and telecom lines; to move debris and fallen trees quickly to restore road connectivity. Air connectivity was restored in 36 hours. Those stranded, were air-lifted and essential supplies were air-dropped by army helicopters. The United Nations praised India for its early warning systems and its well-coordinated efforts aimed at rapid evacuation and relief.

After wrecking havoc in Odisha, Fani's convective structure rapidly degraded. The tropical storm passed through Kolkata as a cyclonic storm. On 4th May, Fani weakened to a depression, before degenerating into a well-marked low later that day and moved on to neighbouring Bangladesh. India's well coordinated efforts saved the day for a million people and goes on to prove, yet again, that technology can be and should be used for the benefit and welfare of mankind.

Mission Shakti: India's ASAT test and its geopolitical implications

India announced on 27th March, 2019 that it had successfully terminated a low earth orbit (LEO) satellite in space using an indigenously developed anti-satellite missile system. The test, code-named Mission Shakti, was fully successful and achieved all parameters and met desired objectives. An ASAT test requires an extremely high degree of precision and technological capability. The test makes India the fourth country in the world after the United States, Russia and China, to acquire the strategic capability to shoot down enemy satellites in orbit.

China conducted an ASAT test in January 2007 which demonstrated the capability of shooting down satellites at an altitude of over 800 kilometres in the lower earth orbit (LEO). US was the first country to acquire the ASAT technology in 1958 followed by USSR in 1964. Anti-satellite weapons are considered to be strategic assets since they can easily cripple an enemy nation's communication links and earth-observing capabilities, thereby impacting military operations, financial transactions and broadcasting services. Much like nuclear assets, ASAT capabilities serve to act like a deterrence. The DRDO’s Ballistic Missile Defence interceptor was used in this test, which is part of India's on-going ballistic missile defence programme. Crucial support was also provided by ISRO, India's premier space research organization. The mission took only 3 minutes to complete from the time of locking on to the target satellite till the moment it was terminated.

Mission Shakti: India's ASAT Test

The government of India has stated that it has no intention of entering into an arms race in outer space. The country has always maintained that space must be used only for peaceful purposes. The government has also stated that India is against the weaponization of outer space and supports international efforts to reinforce the safety and security of space based assets. The test was done simply to verify that India has the capability to safeguard its space assets. Care was taken to ensure that test was performed in the lower earth atmosphere. This would ensure that there was no space debris. Whatever debris was generated shall decay and fall back on to the earth's surface within a few weeks, thereby reducing the possibility of damage to other active satellites in the vicinity.

The consequences of publicly announcing an ASAT capability are far-reaching. An ASAT capability can finish a war even before it starts. It is a message to India's hostile neighbours, namely Pakistan and China, that the country can defend its space assets and, if required, eliminate enemy assets to cause massive disruption during war. It is a strategic and bold move by India and reflects a tectonic shift in the nation's military doctrine. India, is now truly ready for the space age.